Evaluating the Strikers in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues
All over the world, data and analytics are having a growing impact on the game of soccer. Overseas, teams in England from the Premier League to League 2 employ data analysts that crunch the numbers and evaluate their own team’s performance as well as that of their opponents, rivals, and transfer targets. Despite this fast development of analytics within the beautiful game, fans may still find it more difficult to make comparisons between two soccer players than it is to make a comparison between two athletes of a different sport, such as baseball for example. That is why I will be evaluating the performances of all the strikers from Europe’s top five leagues (as of January 10th) using the statistical data available from websites such as Understat and Whoscored.
Statistics can have an impact on evaluating a player’s performance with the use of the expected goals statistic (xG) within soccer. Expected goals is the statistic that determines the percentage that a shot has of going in based off of factors such as: the location from where the shot was taken, the type of assist on the shot, if the shot was taken on the player’s strong foot, and many more. Adding up a player’s expected goals total for every shot that they take over the course of a season can give you an idea of how many goals that player would be expected to score. For example, Robert Lewandowski has 19 goals in the Bundesliga this season. He has accumulated an expected goals total of 17.27 this season so far. That means in the 17 games that Lewandowski has played this Bundesliga season, one could expect him to score 17.27 goals in those games. By seeing that Lewandowski has outperformed his expected goals total by 1.73 and scored 19 goals in 17 games, one can infer that Lewandowski is having a world class season in the Bundesliga so far. Below is a table demonstrating the strikers in Europe’s top 5 leagues with the highest expected goals per 90 minutes.
To continue on Lewandowski, he has outperformed how many goals one could expect him to score in the first 17 games by 1.73 expected goals. As demonstrated in the table above, his 1.03 expected goals per 90 is the second best for a striker in Europe’s top five leagues this season. One would expect that it would be difficult for a normal striker to keep up a rate of 1.03 expected goals per 90 minutes. However, it is clear that Lewandowski is a world class finisher. To supplement his world class finishing, he averages 4.67 shots per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. This shot count is the 8th highest in Europe’s top 5 leagues for a striker. Not only does Lewandowski demonstrate great finishing ability and a high shot count, but he has the supply around him to continue these numbers. The likes of Thomas Muller, Phillippe Coutinho, and Serge Gnabry have 22 assists between them. With world-class creators around him, I am very confident that Lewandowski will get the shots that he needs to continue his high goal scoring spell for the rest of the Bundesliga season. That is not always the case with some of the strikers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Measuring Sustainability
Part of the reason why Lewandowski’s goals total can be sustainable is because he only has scored 1.73 more goals than one would expect him to score over the course of this season based off of the shots he has taken. This is not the case with all of the strikers with very high goal totals in Europe’s top 5 leagues. For example, let’s take the man who is tied with Lewandowski for the most goals by a striker in Europe’s top five leagues, Ciro Immobile of Lazio. Immobile, like Lewandowski, has 19 goals in his first 17 league appearances this season. Ciro Immobile has very similar numbers in terms of shot volume (4.55 per game to Lewandowski’s 4.67) as well also having great playmakers to supply him, with Luis Alberto chipping in 11 assists in the Serie A (tied for second most in Europe’s top five leagues). However, while Lewandowski has totaled 17.27 expected goals this season, Ciro Immobile has only amassed 12.87 expected goals this season. What this means is that the difference of the goals Immobile has scored and his expected goals is the highest by strikers in Europe’s top five leagues, at 6.13. Has Immobile finished brilliantly so far this season? Yes, he has. However, the numbers suggest that Immobile will not be able to continue to finish quite at the rate he is finishing at on current form. He has still amassed the fourth highest expected goals total in Europe’s top five leagues for strikers, so he is still having a fantastic season. But the numbers do suggest that Lewandowski is having a better season due to his expected goals total so far.
Transfer Links
One player whose name has been heavily discussed in the media during the January transfer window is Timo Werner of Red Bull Leipzig. Timo Werner is having a fantastic season under new coach Juliann Nagelsmann. Top of the league in the Bundesliga by two points at the Winter break, Nagelsmann has deployed Leipzig in many systems. However, he has always stuck to using a partnership of Yussuf Poulsen and Timo Werner spearheading the attack. Werner has had an excellent season so far, averaging 4.58 shots per 90 minutes (9th for strikers in Europe’s top five leagues, 2nd in the Bundesliga), .98 expected goals per 90 (2nd most in Europe’s top five leagues), the second most goals in Europe’s top five leagues with 18 goals in 17 appearances as well as the 2nd highest expected goals total in Europe’s top five leagues with an expected goals total of 15.68 this season. Werner has an excellent partnership with Yussuf Poulsen and would be an asset to any of the biggest teams in Europe, let alone Chelsea. Still only 23 years old, Timo Werner has room to develop. With a reported release clause coming up soon, do not be surprised if Timo Werner gets a move. However, with Leipzig top of the Bundesliga and a coach such as Nagelsmann, it is possible that Werner would not mind staying for another season of Nagelsmann’s project with Leipzig. Either way, Werner is having a world class season and is definitely one to keep an eye on in 2020.
Another player whose name has been discussed as a potential transfer target for some of Europe’s top clubs is Moussa Dembele of Lyon. The French striker has 10 goals to his name thus far in Lyon’s Ligue 1 campaign. However, he also has accumulated an expected goals of 6.45 this season, outscoring his expected goals total by 3.55 goals. What is somewhat impressive from Dembele is that he has scored 10 goals despite only getting 2.25 shots per game this season. This could be seen as Dembele not being able to gather enough shots for himself, or it could be seen as Dembele making the most of what he can due to playing with the likes of Memphis Depay, who averages 3.7 shots per game despite mostly playing on the left wing this season. Therefore, I believe that Dembele can be seen as a good target for Chelsea (if they are searching for someone to give Tammy Abraham legitimate competition) or Tottenham Hotspur in the wake of Harry Kane’s injury that will see him out until April. His numbers are not out of this world, but he is only 23, and if he gets a move he will more than likely be surrounded by players who can give him the proper service that he needs to score.
Analyzing Icardi’s Contribution
Staying in France, Mauro Icardi was frozen out of Inter Milan’s squad in the buildup to the 2019-2020 season. Antonio Conte was clearly happy with his striker duo of a rejuvenated Romelu Lukaku and rising star Lautaro Martinez. There were some question marks behind Icardi’s move to Paris Saint Germain this Summer due to the competition of strikers from the likes of Edinson Cavani and Kylian Mbappe. However, this move has so far proven to be a success for both parties. Even though Icardi is not outperforming his expected goals total (9 goals to 9.02 expected goals), Icardi has only played 739 Ligue 1 minutes while only starting in 8 of his 11 appearances. Icardi has the highest expected goals per 90 minutes ratio at 1.11 for strikers in Europe’s top five leagues. Despite having what may be perceived as a little bit of a smaller sample size, his poacher striker style has given him very good opportunities to score. This is clearly demonstrated by his .335 expected goals per shot ratio. His success may not only give Paris Saint Germain a helping hand in finally achieving European glory, but it may also force some of Europe’s biggest clubs to re-ignite their interest in the Argentinian Striker.
Time to move on from Luis Suarez?
Moving on to La Liga, there has been some unrest amongst Barcelona fans wanting to move on from Luis Suarez, their main striker since the 2014-2015 season. However, Luis Suarez is by all means having a good season. Suarez has amassed 3.67 shots per 90 minutes (2nd most for a striker in La Liga), .65 expected goals per 90 (21st for strikers in Europe’s top five leagues), and 11 goals with an expected goals total of 9.22. The volume numbers may seem totally unimpressive due to him being endlessly supplied by Lionel Messi. However, it must be noted that Suarez is the only player in La Liga who has outscored his expected goals total in the top eight of La Liga’s expected goals leaderboard. This is important in the context of being compared to Karim Benzema (12 goals at 12.6 expected goals) and Alvaro Morata (7 goals at 9.55 expected goals) who are not outperforming their expected goals totals so far this season. At 32 years old, Luis Suarez may need replacing in the near future, but Barcelona fans should be thankful for having such a prolific striker at their disposal for the last five seasons.
Serie A’s Unbelievable Volume
When looking over my standings of strikers who had the most shots per 90 minutes in Europe’s top five leagues, something stood out to me like a sore thumb. All of the top six (and 7 out of the top 10) were members of the Serie A. The top 6 were: Cristiano Ronaldo, Josip Illicic, Mario Balotelli, Luis Muriel, Lautaro Martinez and Paulo Dybala. I tried to find an immediate solution to understand why this was happening. I assumed that Atalanta, Juventus, and Inter Milan surely dominate possession and shoot as often as they can. This is not necessarily untrue, with these three Serie A sides ranking 1st, 5th, and 10th respectively in shots by team per game in Europe’s top 5 leagues. From a possession standpoint the Italian sides are ranked 17th, 8th and 31st. This can help give us a proper understanding of how these teams play. Atalanta, for example, do a great job at keeping the ball as well as giving their strikers (Illicic, Muriel and sometimes Duvan Zapata) opportunities to shoot. This is also demonstrated with Illicic and Muriel having 59 shots within the 18 yard box so far in the Serie A this season. Juventus on the other hand have Ronaldo with 59 shots in the 18 yard box by himself, with Dybala having 34 and Higuain having 33. This makes sense, because Ronaldo has never been afraid to shoot, and he has always been very good at making space for himself. Inter being 31st in possession and 10th in shooting in Europe’s top five leagues is a clear example of the directness of Antonio Conte’s coaching style. Using the shot volume and shot location data can help fans and analysts break down the play style of certain teams. Below we can see the leaders of shots per 90 minutes from Europe’s top five leagues.
There was one team (and player) who was not addressed in the analysis from the last paragraph. That team is Brescia and the Italian striker Mario Balotelli. Balotelli averages about 5.26 shots per game, despite Brescia being ranked 76th in shots per game out of the 98 teams in Europe’s top five leagues. I looked a little bit deeper and saw that Balotelli has the most shots for strikers from outside of the box in Europe’s top five leagues, with 29 total. This can be a sign of two things. One, that Brescia are very obviously relying on Balotelli way too much to shoot as much as possible. No other player on Brescia has at least 1.5 shots per game. Secondly, this also tells us that Brescia do not do a very good job at creating better opportunities for Balotelli, who averages .103 expected goals per shot. This expected goals per shot ratio ranks at 135th among the 149 strikers of Europe’s top five leagues who have played at least half of the minutes available. Brescia also have the third to lowest possession per game percentage in Europe’s top 5 leagues with 42.8 percent (only Ausburg at 39.9 percent and Newcastle at 38.8 percent are lower). This makes it clear that it may be part of the game plan to get the ball to Balotelli quickly and to let him shoot from wherever he wants. However, currently standing at 18th in the Serie A, it could possibly be helpful to them to give Balotelli a strike partner to help carry the shot load for Brescia.
Surprise Premier League Standouts
The Premier League has seen a plethora of new names rising onto the scene this season. One of these relatively unexpected names is Tammy Abraham. After Tammy Abraham’s very fruitful loan spell at Bristol City, he endured a frustrating loan campaign at Swansea the following season. This was followed by another very successful Championship season with Aston Villa which ultimately resulted in them being promoted back into the Premier League last season. In the midst of Chelsea’s transfer ban, Frank Lampard made what had seemed to be a bold decision and made Abraham the starting number nine for Chelsea at the beginning of this season. However, Lampard’s decision has more than paid off, with Abraham being ranked 4th amongst Premier League Strikers in shots per 90 minutes, 6th in expected goals per 90 minutes, 3rd in goals and a goals to expected goals difference of 1.44. These are very well-rounded stats and would not in any sense show that Abraham was not fully equipped to the jump from the Championship into the Premier League.
It is very clear to see why Abraham did not have as successful of a season as he would have hoped to in the 2017–2018 season at Swansea. In that season, Swansea averaged 8.9 shots per game (last in the Premier League) and only 46 percent possession (15th in the Premier League). However, Chelsea after 21 Premier League games this season have averaged 16.4 shots per game (2nd most in the league) while also averaging 57.2 percent possession (3rd most in the league). It makes sense for Chelsea to have more of the ball as well as more shots per game then Swansea, but it is now very clear that Abraham is thriving on a team that is enjoying much more of the ball, instead of Swansea, who had less of the ball and played a completely different style then Chelsea do this season.
The other Premier League Striker who many fans are surprised to be seeing having great success is none other than Danny Ings. His time at Liverpool was riddled with injuries, rupturing his ACL in his first training session under Jurgen Klopp in 2015, while also suffering a serious knee injury in his second appearance for Liverpool in 2016. However, Ings has shown determination to come back into his best form in his life. After being loaned (with an obligation to buy) to Southampton in 2018, Ings has shown what he can do with consistent playing time. His numbers were decent last season, especially for someone who had not played more than 10 games in over three seasons. However, this season he has really began to hit his stride under Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Englishman has scored 13 goals in the Premier League this season on 8.39 expected goals, as well as averaging 2.94 shots per 90 minutes with an expected goals average of .51 goals per 90 minutes. One may be skeptical over whether or not he can keep his goal tally up, due to the 4.61 goals minus expected goals difference. That does not take away from the fact that Ings’ 9 goals in his last 10 appearances for Southampton have seen them shoot right up the table to 12th place and out of the relegation zone. With Harry Kane injured, Ings is more than deserving of getting recalled into the English national team.
Comparing Two xG Under-performers
Sheffield United are a side that have surpassed many expectations in the Premier League, including mine. They have an exciting fanbase, a system with overlapping center backs, and a team filled with hard-working players that makes it very difficult not to root for them. Chris Wilder, manager of Sheffield United, plays a 3–5–2 formation, with David McGoldrick often partnered by either: Oli McBurnie, Lys Mousset, or Callum Robinson. McGoldrick has by far the most starts in this quartet, with 16 starts on his own. McBurnie, Mousset, and Robinson each have 9 starts in the Premier League. The problem with McGoldrick is that he has yet to score in the league this season and has an expected goals total of 7.15. I decided to take a deeper look into this and I was able to see the stats behind the selection of McGoldrick.
With Oli McBurnie being a solid option (as well as costing 17 million pounds) and Lys Mousset being the best option of stretching opposition defenses through his pace, I asked myself (as many other non-Sheffield United supporters might do), “Why does Wilder continue to start McGoldrick?” I was able to get a good understanding of this through the thoughts of the Sheffield United fanbase as well as the statistics behind McGoldrick. The United fans often give McGoldrick credit for working hard defensively, similarly to how Liverpool fans do the same for Roberto Firmino. McGoldrick has the most tackles per game from a striker who has played at least 750 minutes in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season with 1.8 tackles per game. Therefore, it is easy to see why McGoldrick is a fan favorite as well as being a favorite of Wilder. It is still clear that a goal would do wonders for McGoldrick’s confidence, but I know that as long as McGoldrick continues to work as hard as he does, Sheffield United supporters will continue to chant his name.
Another player who has been underperforming his expected goals is Schalke 04 striker Guido Burgstaller. Burgstaller, similarly to McGoldrick, is perceived to put in a lot of work defensively. These are qualities that every manager enjoys, but this is especially the case with new manager David Wagner, who enjoys pressing out of a 4–4–2 defensive shape. Burgstaller, like McGoldrick, also has zero goals in the league and has an expected goals total of 3.77. Wagner seemed to believe that Burgstaller was a valuable forward due to his defensive contribution within the high press. However, Schalke fans do not see Burgstaller in the same light in which Sheffield United fans see McGoldrick. Why is this? One of the reasons is because Schalke have two young rising strikers: Rabbi Matondo and Ahmed Kutucu on the bench. Many Schalke fans are very excited for the potential of these two young men, and also feel as if Burgstaller did not do enough during the first half of the Bundesliga season to retain his spot in the starting eleven. This could be seen as one of the reasons why Schalke were constantly rumored to be interested in a forward in this January’s transfer window. Schalke did end up signing Michael Gregoritsch on a loan with no option to buy. After starting Schalke’s last Winter break friendly game against Hamburg alongside Benito Raman up top (where mostly Schalke’s whole starting eleven had started) it seems as if Gregoritsch will be the one partnering Benito Raman in spearheading Schalke’s attack ahead of Kutucu, Matondo, and Burgstaller. It will be interesting if the competition for game time will have an impact on Schalke’s chase for qualifying for European Competition through the Bundesliga.
Overall, my goal when looking over the data I had compiled was to get an understanding of who is truly succeeding while also looking at the statistics behind some of the more interesting striker narratives this season. I could probably write 50 pages about the strikers in Europe’s top five leagues, and I did not include everyone who I wanted to. Aubameyang, Vardy and Aguero in England; Joselu, Avila, and Angel in Spain; Paciencia and Niederlechnner in Germany; Wissam Ben Yedder and Habib Diallo in France are all having excellent seasons but were not mentioned. Using statistics can help you see the game in a different light and it can help you form educated opinions with the data to back your answers up. The statistical revolution within the beautiful game is just getting started and people are starting to learn more and more what understanding stats can do for your knowledge on the game of soccer.
